Today’s Trading Edge: AUD/USD bullish stance remains strong despite big jobs miss

The Australian dollar initially fell 43 pips to .7296 after the Australian Bureau of Statistics released an unexpected weak jobs report. The slide however was short-lived and the currency pair rallied to fresh session highs. Employment weakened 5,100 from August, significantly worse than expected gain 9,600.

Other key data points include the unemployment rate remaining steady at 6.2% and the participation rate dropped to 64.9% from 65%. Regardless of the weak employment print, the RBA might remain on hold at its next meeting in November. The key to further RBA cuts may remain if we see more weakness from China.

The AUD/USD daily chart shown above displays the strong bullish rebound that has been in place since September 24th is tentatively finding major resistance from the 100-day SMA. If we see bullish momentum rally above the .7400 zone, we could see price surge towards .7495. It is around that area that we could see price form a bearish butterfly pattern. Point D is targeted with the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion level of both the X to A and B to C legs. If valid, we could see price reverse back towards the long-term trendline shown in red. If the pattern is invalidated, we could see price ultimately target the 200-day SMA.

If we see bearish momentum return here, we could see price find support from the .7150 region. Major support will come from the .6950 level.

The trade: Buy AUDUSD at .7335, with a stop loss at .7285 and a take profit at .7485. The risk/reward ratio is 1:3

 

Edward J. Moya is the Chief Market Strategist for edmoya.com, an educational website for foreign exchange and commodity traders. He has over 15 years of investment industry experience in forex, stocks, options and futures. At edmoya.com, Mr. Moya writes daily currency and commodity analysis and has authored numerous articles on trading using both technical and fundamental analysis for major financial publications. He is a contributor of technical and fundamental analysis in currencies and commodities to SFO, Market News International, and Forex Factory.

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